Patterns in Randomness
Some things in life we cannot explain. The origin of the universe is one of the main mysteries, and we have come up with many theories and theisms to explain it. Myths and folktales are also a result of the inexplicable. These stories people tell have meaning, and they usually explain a natural or social phenomenon with the existence of supernatural beings.
However, these are not truly random. They are not the same as coin flips and dice rolls. They are not the same as the unpredictable future and the constantly increasing entropy of the universe, the nature for everything to fall into disorder. These events are truly unpredictable, and what I’ve come to learn is that humans are horrible at predicting random events and being random themselves.
Examples
Just for fun, here are a few examples I am aware of.
Suppose you write a sequence of 100 coin flips (heads or tails), then compare it to an actual sequence of 100 coin flips. Chances are, they will be easily distinguishable. What we perceive as random often doesn’t line up with what is actually random. For example, more often than not, you will find a streak of five, even six heads or tails in a row when looking at a sequence of 100 coin flips. Yet when humans try to generate 100 flips, they shy away from including such long streaks, perceiving them as “orderly” or “not random”.
Another example that highlights the disparity in what we perceive as random and true randomness can be found in the scattering of points in a two-dimensional grid. Most people expect randomness to mean a somewhat even distribution with random spacing between each point, but when the points are scattered truly randomly, there are bound to be spaces where there are relatively lower and relatively higher densities. One example of this can be seen in the London Blitz, where people questioned whether or not the attacks were targeted or random. British statistician R. D. Clarke (1946) discovered that the bombings were highly random, and closely followed a Poisson distribution.
But now, let’s observe this phenomenon in another setting: gambling. The gambler’s fallacy is an interesting phenomenon which demonstrates the incorrect notion that previous events can affect the probability event of an independent event. (The probability of an independent event occurring, by definition, is not affected by other events.) For example, after a coin lands on heads five times in a row, many will incorrectly assume that the next flip has a higher likelihood of landing on tails. Similarly, if a die is rolled many times without a six appearing, one will likely think that on the next roll, a six is more likely. However, neither of these are true, since they are independent events. And even if one is aware of this fallacy, they still might believe, or at least hope internally, that it’s true.
Summary
Even though this topic is certainly not a serious one, it’s definitely interesting to think about. Our perceived control of random events may cause us to roll the dice in a special manner, while believing that our chance for double sixes is increased. It may cause us to pray for a desired result while gambling, crossing our fingers or performing whatever “ritual” we believe will increase our chances. While the examples shown aren't too significant, but plenty of fun nonetheless, maybe having these cognitive biases is part of being human. Maybe, finding meaning in the meaningless, finding patterns in the randomness, and finding order in disorder is just human nature. And instead of fighting these tendencies, maybe we should just embrace them.
Life Update!
SUMMET was such a great experience. I met so many great people, learned many things (most memorably the right-hand rule, particle physics, and the nature of spacetime, all from one physics professor), and got to explore Colorado School of Mines. I didn’t have much free time to write a post though. Yes, this is coming out one week late but I decided to just accept it instead of beating myself up over it. I wanted to write about something more math-based, and it was pretty fun! I’m attending HCSSiM next, so hopefully, I’ll have time over the next six weeks to write something meaningful.
Also, it’s crazy to think that I’ve been writing these articles for a quarter of a year. 13 weeks is a quarter of 52 weeks, which completely flew over my head last time.
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